Because we all know that the results of the past guarantee the future

We’re all just game pieces until we win a friendly football pool [image by klimkin]
+-------------+-----------------------+------------------+-------+
| edition | team 1 | team 2 | score |
+-------------+-----------------------+------------------+-------+
| 2016-FRANCE | Wales (Cymru) | Belgium (België) | 3-1 |
| 2016-FRANCE | Germany (Deutschland) | Italy (Italia) | 1-1 |
| 2016-FRANCE | France | Iceland (Ísland) | 5-2 |
| 2016-FRANCE | Portugal | Wales (Cymru) | 2-0 |
| 2016-FRANCE | Germany (Deutschland) | France | 0-2 |
+-------------+-----------------------+------------------+-------+
Appearance of points in each Euro Cup competition [image by author]
A heat map that shows the relative density of the match result in each Euro Cup [image by author]
+-------+--------+
| score | freq. |
+-------+--------+
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
| 1-0 | 16.25% |
| 1-1 | 13.87% |
| 2-0 | 15.49% |
| 2-1 | 14.41% |
| 2-2 | 3.3% |
| 3-0 | 6.6% |
| 3-1 | 5.4% |
| 3-2 | 6.02% |
| 3-3 | 0.73% |
| 4-0 | 0.98% |
| 4-1 | 0.81% |
| 4-2 | 1.47% |
| 4-3 | 0.17% |
| 5-0 | 1.78% |
| 5-1 | 1.09% |
| 5-2 | 0.69% |
| 5-4 | 0.23% |
| 6-0 | 0.41% |
| 6-1 | 0.29% |
| 6-2 | 0.17% |
| 7-1 | 0.23% |
+-------+--------+
+-------+------+
| score | ~N |
+-------+------+
| 0-0 | 3.46 |
| 1-0 | 5.85 |
| 1-1 | 4.99 |
| 2-0 | 5.58 |
| 2-1 | 5.19 |
| 2-2 | 1.19 |
| 3-0 | 2.37 |
| 3-1 | 1.95 |
| 3-2 | 2.17 |
| 3-3 | 0.26 |
| 4-0 | 0.35 |
| 4-1 | 0.29 |
| 4-2 | 0.53 |
| 4-3 | 0.06 |
| 5-0 | 0.64 |
| 5-1 | 0.39 |
| 5-2 | 0.25 |
| 5-4 | 0.08 |
| 6-0 | 0.15 |
| 6-1 | 0.11 |
| 6-2 | 0.06 |
| 7-1 | 0.08 |
+-------+------+
# get the floor of each value with fraction
n = [int(x) for x in e]
# create a list with only fractions
f = [x % 1 for x in e]
# loop until the right sum is reached
while sum(n) < 36:
# find the largest fraction, add one to N there and set to zero
idx = np.argmax(f)
f[idx] = 0
n[idx] += 1
+-------+------+---+
| score | ~N | N |
+-------+------+---+
| 0-0 | 3.46 | 4 |
| 1-0 | 5.85 | 6 |
| 1-1 | 4.99 | 5 |
| 2-0 | 5.58 | 6 |
| 2-1 | 5.19 | 5 |
| 2-2 | 1.19 | 1 |
| 3-0 | 2.37 | 2 |
| 3-1 | 1.95 | 2 |
| 3-2 | 2.17 | 2 |
| 3-3 | 0.26 | 0 |
| 4-0 | 0.35 | 0 |
| 4-1 | 0.29 | 0 |
| 4-2 | 0.53 | 1 |
| 4-3 | 0.06 | 0 |
| 5-0 | 0.64 | 1 |
| 5-1 | 0.39 | 1 |
| 5-2 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 5-4 | 0.08 | 0 |
| 6-0 | 0.15 | 0 |
| 6-1 | 0.11 | 0 |
| 6-2 | 0.06 | 0 |
| 7-1 | 0.08 | 0 |
+-------+------+---+
+-----------+-------------+--------+--------+-----------+
| country 1 | country 2 | rank 1 | rank 2 | rank diff |
+-----------+-------------+--------+--------+-----------+
| turkey | italy | 29 | 7 | 22 |
| wales | switzerland | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| denmark | finland | 10 | 54 | -44 |
| belgium | russia | 1 | 38 | -37 |
| england | croatia | 4 | 14 | -10 |
+-----------+-------------+--------+--------+-----------+
+-----------------+-----------------+-----+-----+--------+------+
| country 1 | country 2 | r 1 | r 2 | r diff | PRED |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----+-----+--------+------+
| turkey | italy | 29 | 7 | 22 | 1-2 |
| wales | switzerland | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0-0 |
| denmark | finland | 10 | 54 | -44 | 3-0 |
| belgium | russia | 1 | 38 | -37 | 3-1 |
| england | croatia | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1-0 |
| austria | north macedonia | 23 | 62 | -39 | 4-2 |
| netherlands | ukraine | 16 | 24 | -8 | 1-1 |
| scotland | czech | 44 | 40 | 4 | 1-1 |
| poland | slovakia | 21 | 36 | -15 | 1-0 |
| spain | sweden | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1-0 |
| hungary | portugal | 37 | 5 | 32 | 0-2 |
| france | germany | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1-0 |
| finland | russia | 54 | 38 | 16 | 1-2 |
| turkey | wales | 29 | 17 | 12 | 0-1 |
| italy | switzerland | 7 | 13 | -6 | 1-1 |
| ukraine | north macedonia | 24 | 62 | -38 | 3-1 |
| denmark | belgium | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2-2 |
| netherlands | austria | 16 | 23 | -7 | 1-1 |
| sweden | slovakia | 18 | 36 | -18 | 2-1 |
| croatia | czech | 14 | 40 | -26 | 3-2 |
| england | scotland | 4 | 44 | -40 | 3-0 |
| hungary | france | 37 | 2 | 35 | 0-2 |
| portugal | germany | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1-1 |
| spain | poland | 6 | 21 | -15 | 2-1 |
| italy | wales | 7 | 17 | -10 | 1-0 |
| switzerland | turkey | 13 | 29 | -16 | 2-1 |
| ukraine | austria | 24 | 23 | 1 | 0-0 |
| north macedonia | netherlands | 62 | 16 | 46 | 1-5 |
| finland | belgium | 54 | 1 | 53 | 0-5 |
| russia | denmark | 38 | 10 | 28 | 0-2 |
| czech | england | 40 | 4 | 36 | 0-2 |
| croatia | scotland | 14 | 44 | -30 | 2-0 |
| slovakia | spain | 36 | 6 | 30 | 0-2 |
| sweden | poland | 18 | 21 | -3 | 0-0 |
| portugal | france | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0-0 |
| germany | hungary | 12 | 37 | -25 | 3-2 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----+-----+--------+------+
Drawing for me, I will show the forecast “Belgium 5-0 Finland” to everyone after it happens. [image by Clker]

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